With Mickey & the Magical Map performing for about a year or so, the show looks like it will stay there for some time. Now I've been designing my own Beauty & the Beast dark ride for about a month or so now, and when I talked to my friends about if a ride got a green light for fantasyland, where would it go? Almost unanimously, the group said "fantasyland theater", with one saying to replace Snow White. So my question, if fantasyland got a new ride, would they replace an old attraction, or go where the theater is?
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Don't forget about the Skyway space. They would have to make some changes in that area, but it could potentially fit a new ride.
Maybe they could extended Fantasyland to where Toontown is, rip out the Roger Rabbit ride, make it a Beauty and the Beast ride and make Gadgets go Coaster a Frozen themed sleigh ride coaster and then change all the other buildings the Meet and Greet buildings for all the charters, and just rip out the theater to ease the flow of traffic.
Fantasyland Theater could easily be removed to add a new dark ride, maybe an extension of the castle?
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Replacing the theater would require quite a bit more capital investment, to tear down the theater, regrade the site and build a new ride building, as opposed to simply gutting and refitting an existing ride building elsewhere in the land.
Of course, that would give Disney a but more flexibility than working in an existing space, but that's a cost/benefit analysis for the pencil-pushers there.
Disney sometimes uses the theater for other large gatherings, and might be unwilling to give up that ability, especially if it converts Big Thunder Ranch to an attraction space.