Published: October 21, 2010 at 7:15 PM
Looked like an interesting question.
I first calculated the number of years for you to break even on a LegoLand pass using an average annual price increase of 5.7% and an inflation (discount) rate of 2.6%.
Based on this, you breakeven on the LegoLand pass on what would be your 13 annual pass.
If you then base Disney pricing their ticket based on the 13th annual pass renewal, the current value (price you would pay) of the pass is $7200.
Disney has a long history in Central Florida and can be more aggressive on pricing. If they calculate the annual pass on 17 annual passes, the current price would be about $10,000.
If Disney is even more agressive on pricing and who thinks they wouldn't be,you can have a lifetime of Disney for only about $14,999. (Breakeven for 22 annual passes)
Raw Data Sources
Expected Price LegoLand 1/1/11 is $159. Since it is a discounted rate as the park is not yet open, we will treat the same as an annual pass renewal.
Expected Price for a Disney annual pass renewal on 1/1/11 is $459
Disney price for a basic annual pass renewal has increased on average about 5.7% from 1991-2009. They are the effective price leader for the market. I used this site for the raw data. http://allears.net/tix/tickethistory.htm
Inflation has averaged about 2.6% annually since 1991. I used this for the discount rate.