Predicting TEA/AECOM's numbers for 2025
It will be interesting to read about Epic Universe's (EU) performance in the 2025 TEA/AECOM theme park index (admissions estimate report, due out sometime next fall). I think it's reasonable to assume that EU will perform better than the other Comcast parks operating in Central Florida. It is, after all, the "big new thing".
Having said that, according to TEA/AECOM the best year (admissions) experienced by the existing Comcast, Orlando parks was in 2022. That year Universal Studios Florida (USF) and Islands of Adventure (IOA) totaled 21,775,000 admissions (or close to 11 million admissions per park). That represented an average of around 30,000 admissions daily (per park). No doubt EU will enjoy stronger numbers than the original parks -- at least during its first year of operations. So, if we give EU a +33% above the average established by the existing Comcast parks (just throwin' bones here) that would mean EU would reach a per day average of around 40,000 admissions.
Although that's an estimate, it seems reasonable. Since it opened in May, that would mean EU operated 225 days in 2025. Multiply that 40K average (estimate) by 225 days and I would guess the total 2025 admissions (TEA/AECOM) would be a credible 8.9 million. If you buy my math, had EU been open all twelve months, the number of admissions would be around 14.5 million -- which would be higher than any of the Walt Disney World (WDW) parks has ever performed -- with the exception of the Magic Kingdom (TEA/AECOM average - 2007 thru 2024 -- 17.4 million admissions annually).
Giving some consideration to the history and stats, I'm wondering what the TPI regulars might predict about the attendance numbers measuring the Central Florida parks when the next report drops in five or six months. I thought it might be interesting to lock in those estimates and compare them to the published stats (estimate).
(Please Note: The attendance numbers for the UO and WDW parks for 2023 and 2024 are listed in the first comment on this thread).
Replies (10)
THCreative Predictions for 2025
WALT DISNEY WORLD
Magic Kingdom - 17,479,000
EPCOT - 11,890,000
Disney's Hollywood Studios - 10,126,000
Disney's Animal Kingdom - 8,624,000
UNIVERSAL ORLANDO
Universal Studios Florida - 9,120,000
Islands of Adventure - 9,072,000
Epic Universe (*) - 8,900,000
(*) - Seven Months of Operations
Correct numbers are:
Universal Studios Florida
2023 - 9,750,000
2024 - 9,500,000
Islands of Adventure
2023 - 10,000,000
2024 - 9,450,000
My prediction is that Epic comes in at the number 10 spot for U.S. attendance, making it a clean sweep of Disney and Universal theme parks for the top 10. Epic needs to attract just 4.6 million guests last year to do that to beat last year's 10, Knott's Berry Farm. Keep in mind that Epic would have had only seven months of official operation in 2025, but that should be enough. If not, Epic certainly will enter the top 10 in 2026, perhaps beating Disney's Animal Kingdom, which will suffer a dip in anticipation of Tropical Americas in 2027.
Thank you Robert. Corrections were made.
Personally, I don’t think there’s much merit to “guessing” what numbers TEA/AECOM will pump out (they do that good enough on their own). Those are pretty irrelevant compared to revenue/profits and the methodology behind the calculations is as consistent as the rules on “Whose Line Is It Anyway?”.
@James: I don't blame you for showing skepticism about the TEA/AECOM numbers. I've expressed my doubts as well.
But two things changed my opinion if only just a bit. First, an associate of mine who was a top exec overseeing the Magic Kingdom told me, flat out, that the Magic Kingdom hosts nearly 20 million guests annually. That number is pretty close to the TEA/AECOM totals.
And then, during the WDW vs. Desantis fiasco, in an interview Robert Iger (making an off-the-cuff remark asked, "Does Florida still want us to host 50 million people a year"? Again, add up the TEA/AECOM numbers and they align with his comment.
I mean, it's still an estimate, but there are signs suggesting they are not wildly off-the-mark.
The difficulty here is that we know Universal was limiting capacity at Epic Universe, yet we don't know by what factor it was being limited. Thus, it's unlikely the park was averaging as many daily visitors as the others on property. However, it's probably a reasonable assumption that most Universal visitors with trips after the park opened did visit Epic Universe, with some potentially coming just for the new park. Therefore, I'm going to make the following guesses...
Epic Universe: 7.3 million
Islands of Adventure: 9.4 million (-0.5%)
Studios Florida: 11.5 million (+21.1%)
Combined: 28.2 million (+48.8%)
I can see some eye rolling at the Studios number, but here's my reasoning: If you visit Universal once every 3-4 years, not only would a visit in 2025 have everything that Epic has to offer, but Studios would have also debuted several new attractions in that timeframe that those visitors have not yet seen and was also doing farewell rides on a couple retiring attractions. On the other hand, VelociCoaster is the most recent addition to Islands, and with a 2021 opening, most returning visitors to the resort have nothing new for them at Islands. Therefore, those going for shorter trips are more likely to drop that park from their itinerary.
As for Walt Disney World...
Animal Kingdom: 9.5 million (+8%)
Epcot: 11.5 million (-5.2%)
Hollywood Studios: 10.9 million (+5.5%)
Magic Kingdom: 17.8 million (-0.2%)
Combined: 49.7 million (+1.2%)
How's this one shake out? Simply put, major attraction closures at Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios combined with splashover from Universal visitors contributes to higher attendance at the more "thrill focused" Disney properties. Magic Kingdom remains nearly constant due to its evergreen nature and "small ball" investments, while Epcot takes a hit with Test Track down for over half the year and less discretionary spending for festival purchases. Overall, the increased visitation to Universal leads to a slight increase for Disney as well, though it is somewhat canceled out by those who opt not to visit in 2025 after recent visits in 2023 and/or 2024.
How much confidence do I have in these numbers? Honestly, very little, but if I'm within 10% on Epic and correctly predict the direction each park goes, I'll consider that a pretty big win.
MH - 17,587,641 to be exact
I never understood why USF gets more visitors than IOA.
IOA is such a better park with so much more that USF...
And Epic was only 1/2 year - will get about - 4,621,895
And why is TH trying to create his onw Polymarket?
I can see why IOA isn’t the top park at Universal. USF has HHN, which for all intents and purposes should count as a separate admission from daytime guests.
Here's something CRAZY. The new 'Monster's Inc.' expansion at DHS opens some time in 2027 -- See Robert's article on the home page. It's first full year of operation will be in 2028. Which means the first full yearTEA/AECOM admissions report won't publish until the fall of 2029.
Previous TEA/AECOM stats. Please correct me if these are wrong.
WALT DISNEY WORLD
Magic Kingdom
2023 – 17,720,000
2024 – 17,836,000
EPCOT
2023 - 11,980,000
2024 – 12,133,000
Disney’s Hollywood Studios
2023 – 10,300,000
2024 – 10,333,000
Disney’s Animal Kingdom
2023 – 8,770,000
2024 – 8,800,000
UNIVERSAL ORLANDO
Universal Studios Florida
2023 – 9,750,000
2024 – 9,500,000
Islands of Adventure
2023 - 10,000,000
2024 – 9,450,000
Epic Universe
2023 – N/A
2024 – N/A