Coming Soon: TEA/AECOM Theme Index -- Revised Predictions
The TEA/AECOM index related to park stats from 2025 is about to drop. So I am revisiting (and revising) my estimates from the previous thread “Predicting TEA/AECOM's numbers for 2025” – originally posted on May 23, 2026.
The numbers marked with an asterisk (*) are the same as previous prediction (05/23/26).
Magic Kingdom - 17,479,000 *
EPCOT - 11,890,000 *
Disney's Hollywood Studios - 10,126,000 *
Universal Studios Florida - 9,120,000 *
Islands of Adventure – 9,072,000 *
Disney's Animal Kingdom - 8,624,000 *
Epic Universe – 6,514,063 (Revised Down)
The Epic Universe stats are a forecast based on eight months of operation. Take that number, divide it by eight and multiply that by twelve and (based on that rolling of bones) the full year attendance would have been 9,771,095 – leading all Universal Orlando parks and Disney’s Animal Kingdom.
Replies (11)
I never can understand why
Universal Studios Florida - 9,120,000 *
Islands of Adventure – 9,072,000 *
IOA is so much better than Universal Studios...
And Universal Studios has less things to do - lately they have closed a few attractions???
I wonder is HHN makes up a lot of that number?
@Russell: 6.5 million divided by 245 days equals an average daily admission count of 26,500. I think that's reasonable.
@Brian: I think Diagon Alley is a big draw for USF.
@TH - I would tend to agree that it's reasonable, but it was pretty clear from first-person accounts (and Universal statements after the fact) that attendance was significantly restricted during May, June, and into July, so while it makes perfect sense for a park like Epic to pull 26.5k per day, I don't think they were anything close to that number for at least their first 3 months of full operation. Now, if you throw in all those soft open entries in April and early May (not sure if those count as official attendance or not with TEA estimators -FYI, AECOM is no longer supporting the TEA Index Report), that may make up for the deliberately limited attendance over those first few months.
"I think Diagon Alley is a big draw for USF" - Spot on here, plus you have to realize that any ride on Hogwart's Express would by extension count as attending both parks, even if you just loop and around and ride back the other direction. TPI had a long discussion about this since the attraction is essentially an upcharge attraction requiring guests to have park-to-park tickets to ride it, and why TMs are stationed at entrances at both ends and can upgrade tickets for guests that didn't realize the park-to-park requirement to ride the train.
I think they were around the 20k mark during those first few months, FWIW.
Imagine if Disney didn't pass on HP (thrice)...
"Pass"? I thought JK Rowling decided she didn't want the Potter IP in the Disney? How could Disney "pass" if Rowling was the one who walked away?
She walked away because Disney wouldn't give her complete creative control. That's the same as "passing". Worked out well for Universal them parks.
You forgot the book and movie rights. Disney passed on those as well. Warner, Scholastic, and Bloomsbury sure made out like bandits.
How is that "passing"? She didn't like the treatment WDI offered (reportedly a smaller-scale "mini-land" and little creative control), so she instead went with a company that did. There's no report or detailed record that Disney was even offered the opportunity to present to Rowling again after she rejected their first proposal. Disney didn't "pass", they provided a serious proposal that wasn't what Rowling was looking for, so she passed on their theme park vision for HP in favor of Universal's.
Universal was facing an existential crisis, so it made sense for them to hand over so much control to Rowling in return for the Harry Potter theme park rights. Disney was, uh, not. And I wouldn't have signed up for Universal's deal if I was in Disney's position.
NB: "You forgot the book and movie rights".
Me: No, I didn't. I just chose to focus on your short-sighted mistake about Disney "passing" on the Potter theme park rights.
It's also important to know that Universal significantly restricted attendance to Epic over the first 3+ months of operation, so I think even 6.5M is a generous estimate. Universal even admitted during an earnings call in the second half of 2025 that Epic was not yet operating at full capacity, so if it is reported that they were able to pull enough guests to be the resort's highest attended park and DAK, perhaps we're underestimating the draw of the new theme park.