In the column, I look at the effect upon attendance that the Wizarding World of Harry Potter has had in Orlando and Tokyo and crunch the Southern California theme park numbers to suggest that Universal Studios Hollywood could catch Disney California Adventure in annual attendance by the end of 2016, unless Disney offers a response beyond the current 60th anniversary offerings.
But what's good for Universal doesn't have to be bad for Disney. If Potter brings more tourists to Southern California, that influx almost certainly will help Disney, too. The companies have coexisted well in the past in Southern California.
Disney and Universal weren't always adversaries, said Sam Gennawey, a Los Angeles author who wrote Universal versus Disney: The Unofficial Guide to American Theme Parks' Greatest Rivalry.
"Disneyland and the Universal Studios Tour started out as complementary entertainment activities. Disneyland was the ultimate world of fantasy where you become a player in the show. Universal was set in an authentic working studio with guests experiencing the world's greatest industrial tour with attractions designed to scare you into laughter," Gennawey said.
"That changed in the 1980's when Universal wanted to export their formula to Florida [for Universal Orlando] and new leadership at Disney fiercely resisted. Jay Stein at Universal fought back and modified his plans to beat Disney at their own game. It took 25 years but it seems to be working. Now that formula is being applied right here in LA."
Disney, of course, tried to secure the theme park rights to the Harry Potter franchise but lost them to Universal in what Tony Baxter, the former senior vice president of creative development for Walt Disney Imagineering, called the company's "biggest misstep."
"There are people who have come of age between 2000 and now for whom the world of Harry Potter was incredibly influential," Baxter told me in a 2013 interview. "In the end, what [Universal has] done is link that park with one of the major demographics that go to theme parks today."
Disneyland has spent 60 years working to make its name synonymous with magic. But next year will bring a new brand of magic to town. If Disneyland wants its 61st year to be as successful as its first 60, it will need to cast a new spell or two to match the ones it will soon face from Universal and Harry Potter.
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Hey, Disney, you wanna draw the crowds towards Disneyland instead of Universal Hollywood? Two tips:
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It is a WAY different game between USO and USH just like it is a different game between DLR and WDW.
I liked USH, but that was because it was an actual movie studio. Outside of Waterworld, it is a weaker copy of USO.
The Wizarding World West isn't designed to appeal to visitors who might otherwise go to Universal Orlando. It's designed for locals and LA-area visitors who don't have Orlando on their radar. And there are enough of them to keep USH filled for a very long time.
I'm still not sure if Uni will pull attendance from DLR. Some may have an experience similar to me -- after visiting Hogwarts for the first time, I quickly questioned why I was paying Disney $500/yr. But, the Pixie Dust in LA is very strong.
I have a feeling there is a "post-princess" teen market waiting to be tapped. Disinterested in Six Flags but too old or too cool for Disneyland. I'm sure Uni will have a huge boost in attendance, but I'm not sure how many of the new visitors have already tossed their Disney AP.
I'm still not sure if Uni will pull attendance from DLR. Some may have an experience similar to me -- after visiting Hogwarts for the first time, I quickly questioned why I was paying Disney $500/yr. But, the Pixie Dust in LA is very strong.
I have a feeling there is a "post-princess" teen market waiting to be tapped. Disinterested in Six Flags but too old or too cool for Disneyland. I'm sure Uni will have a huge boost in attendance, but I'm not sure how many of the new visitors have already tossed their Disney AP.
For day visitors, I don't think Disneyland's attendance will drop significantly but I do think growth will be pretty much negligible until the next expansion occurs. Disneyland is at the point where they need to improve the experience in order to keep raising prices without losing visitors. On the other hand, I predict a huge attendance increase at USH. We probably won't see the craziness that occurred in Florida, but I do think a growth of 20% is a safe bet for 2016.
USH will gain some ground, of course, especially with nothing in the pipeline at DLR. Of course, any strong attendance boost at DLR, with no new capacity, would be a crowd control nightmare.
Also... I would totally go to SeaWorld if the killer whales (and other sea animals) had larger, more natural tanks and observation points (and did away with their stupid firework animal circus dog trick shows).
All the same, I think the biggest challenge for Universal in 2016 is the relatively small size of the park. Universal Studios Hollywood is just too small to accommodate large crowds like other parks in greater Los Angeles like Disneyland, DCA, or Knott's Berry Farm. Not only are there only about a dozen total rides and shows (Jurassic Park, Mummy, Transformers, Simpsons, Despicable Me, Studio Tram Tour, Waterworld show, Shrek 4D, animal show, special effects show), there isn't as much physical space to accommodate those crowds.
Once the huge crowds descend on Universal in late spring or summer for the opening of Harry Potter, I expect the park will have huge challenges with managing the crowds, in terms of parking, entry, and distribution of crowds. They might even have to go with a limited number of advance tickets sold for each date, with reserving a certain number for walkup sales on the same day.
By the time they are finished with Star Wars, it will be one-thirds of the DHS park, not a mere corner. Star Wars is not big enough to be a full park. It still needs to have other IPs to fill out the park so DHS is a good fit for Star Wars. If you're not convinced, look at all the rides closing in DHS. Also, the former studio backlot tour areas will be opened for expansion. This is where Pixar is going and it will be another one-third of the park.
Disney World's four parks are in the state of deterioration. There are enough upgrading to keep them busy. Plus, attendance capacity has not reached their full potential for a long time. Animal Kingdom and DHS were half day parks for almost forever. They don't need to add a fifth park anything soon. Increase attendance to be at parity with the Magic Kingdom. They can increase attendance an extra third with their remaining 3 parks.
On the other hand, Universal can benefit from a third park because they are pretty much built out. There are some additional land on the south east corner. I haven't heard what they will do with this land.
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That being said, everything I've read has suggested that Disneyland Resort is light years beyond Disney World these days, and seems to have more attractions in two parks than WDW has in four. If I were to visit California, I'd probably check out Uni just to see the backlot tour, but my first theme park priority would be Disneyland Resort. Seems like it has all of the qualities we miss about old school WDW and then some.