This strikes me as a VERY interesting question. Please consider the following:
Michael Eisner became the CEO of Disney in 1984 when he was 42 years-old. He remained at the helm of Disney until 2005 (21 Years) stepping down at age 63.
Robert Iger became the CEO of Disney in 2005 when he was 54 years-old. He remained the Disney chief until 2020 (15 Years) stepping down at 69.
Bob Chapek became the CEO of Disney in 2020. He is 60 years old.
In a world where the future of entertainment (theme parks and movie theaters) remains VERY uncertain and considering how late in his life Mr. Chapek took control, how long will he remain running the show?
Unlike Mr. Eisner and Mr. Iger, Mr. Chapek's roots were more in business and less in creativity and content production. While Mr. Eisner's success drew from exploiting the company's untapped potential and Mr. Iger's success drew from his tech savy and shrewd mergers and acquisition decisions, Mr. Chapek's skillsets seem to be rooted only in business -- and ONLY in the Disney business.
In my opinion, Mr. Chapek's role has been (and will likely remain) focused on the company's short-term survival -- making painful decisions to right the ship and balance the check book. Under such circumstances, opportunities (or for that matter resources) for capital investments and massive creative endeavors seem extremely limited.
Additionally, Chapek's power to consider substantial new opportunities is pretty limited. After all, Mr. Iger remains a force in the company -- sitting as the company's number one stock holder with at total of 1,150,138 shares. Number two is Christine M. McCarthy with about 141,301 shares.
In my opinion, Disney will be looking for a new CEO relatively quickly. A young person with great vision who has executive gravitas and a powerful creative mind.
From where I sit (and for whatever my opinion is worth) I think Mr. Chapek's tenure will be over by 2025.
As for his likely replacement? I'm leaning toward Lachlan Murdoch.
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