The Great Six Flags Downsizing
Two years ago, Cedar Fair and Six Flags joined forces to create a mega chain consisting of twenty-six theme parks and twelve standalone waterparks. Since then, it has become increasingly apparent that the chain is unsustainable in its current form, and corporate is actively looking to downsize by shedding properties with less growth potential. A few months ago, SF America closed for good, dropping the chain's number of theme parks by one, and it's looking very likely to be the first of many to leave the chain. But which other parks may be in line to suffer this fate? I've been doing a lot of thinking on it, and while all of this is pure speculation at this point, this is my best guess for the future based on the evidence we have right now.
First off, I don't expect anything to happen immediately, so every park currently under the Six Flags banner will operate under that banner for the 2026 season. Instead, I expect a lot of changeup following this season as Six Flags makes the necessary moves to raise capital for their upcoming debt payments due next year. I could see an announcement this spring regarding the changes once the Enchanted Parks sale finalizes, but I could also see them waiting until later in the summer to make the announcement. I do expect it before season pass sales start for 2027, as it will majorly impact the multi-park pass products.
First off, I feel pretty confident this is the last year for California's Great America. While this is the 50th anniversary year for the park, no acknowledgement of this fact has been made despite clear promotion for the same anniversary at SF Great America and Valleyfair. Additionally, the calendar has been cut down to end in September, closing everything down at the same time the waterpark normally closes for the season. I heard rumors that this park was actually a loss for the 2025 and corporate wanted to not reopen it for another season, but because they'd already sold passes they decided to give it another year rather than refund all those purchases. Other things I've heard regarding the goings on between here and nearby SF Discovery Kingdom certainly point to an active winddown in progress, so I will be very surprised if this park survives to 2027 at this point. That cuts us to twenty-four theme parks.
The second group of parks are those for which Enchanted Parks trademarks just appeared: Michigan's Adventure, SF Great Escape, SF St. Louis, Worlds of Fun, and the standalone Schlitterbahn Galveston and White Water Bay waterparks. All five of these parks are sort of in the same boat: they're small to mid-size parks that do decent business in their market with relatively little investment, but aren't located somewhere with a ton of growth potential. In a recent earnings call, Six Flags stated some of their properties were "mini cash cows" that worked well in a smaller chain but weren't a good fit for the larger chain, and I think that fits pretty well for all of these. Reading into the situation, it sounds very much like Six Flags is selling them off as a group, which is something the old Six Flags did back in 2007 when several of their properties were sold to PARC Management in an attempt to stave off debt. This would drop the chain to twenty theme parks and ten standalone waterparks.
Speaking of PARC Management, those parks eventually wound up in the hands of EPR Properties, and Six Flags currently operates several of them under a lease: Frontier City, SF Darien Lake, and the waterparks in Concord (CA), Phoenix (AZ), Oklahoma City (OK), and Spring (TX). These are not owned by Six Flags, but they still need to invest resources into operating and maintaining them, thus I could see the company terminating the lease following the conclusion of this season to focus on their core properties.
With all of the above, the chain would be down to eighteen theme parks and six standalone waterparks by the end of 2026. That represents a downsizing of 36% from the chain at the time of the merger, and brings it to a much more manageable scale. But could they go even further? Probably not right now, but if the chain continues to struggle, I could see a few more cuts on the horizon.
First off would be La Ronde. This is another park that Six Flags doesn't own and simply operates through a management lease. My understanding is that the terms of this one are a lot more favorable than those of the EPR lease so I'm doubtful it would go right away, but it's another resource hog that could wind up being set loose.
Secondly, we've got SF Discovery Kingdom and Valleyfair. These are two parks that feel like they're under evaluation to see how much potential they actually have in the market. SFDK is getting all the event assets from CGA, while Valleyfair is getting a massive waterpark overhaul. I suspect the numbers of these parks will be watched carefully over the next two or three seasons to see how they respond to these investments, and if they don't yield satisfactory returns they'll probably be sold off.
Lastly, we've got a couple standalone Hurricane Harbor waterparks to consider. The one in Rockford is under an operating lease up for renewal in 2029, and my gut feeling says the status of the chain at that time will probably determine whether or not that lease is renewed. The other is the one in Oaxtepec, Mexico. That property is owned outright by Six Flags, but it's a good distance away from Mexico City and wasn't successful under it's previous owners. I'm not sure how valuable that one would be to sell, but if there's a buyer I could see it happening.
If all that were to happen, we'd be down to a chain of fifteen theme parks:
Canada's Wonderland
Carowinds
Cedar Point
Dorney Park
Kings Dominion
Kings Island
Knott's Berry Farm
SF Fiesta Texas
SF Great Adventure
SF Great America
SF Magic Mountain
SF Mexico
SF New England
SF Over Georgia
SF Over Texas
along with four standalone waterparks:
Castaway Bay
Schlitterbahn New Braunfels
SFHH Arlington
SF White Water
I think that's a pretty good guess at the core of Six Flags and what we could see the company becoming once all is said and done.
Replies (5)
Great article, AJ!
It will ultimately be decided by profitability of each park and their strategic importance - locally and corporately - so there will be further casualties. Six Flags has an obligation to pay dividends to their investors so that will be the primary corporate strategy over history of their port folio.
the_man (and anyone else who wants to get to CGA before it closes), I definitely recommend getting to the park as soon as practical. Labor Day (Monday, 9/7) is the last day on the calendar and most likely the last day of operation of the park. Also note that the park's calendar is a bit messed up this year due to the World Cup, a pause in daily operation from 6/12-7/2 and then ending their daily period on 8/10, and I suspect they'll be running a skeleton staff after that point. I'm personally planning to head up in early May for what I expect to be my final visit.
Also, since my initial post yesterday, it has been discovered by the internet sleuths that Innovative Attractions Management (the ones behind Enchanted Parks) already manage two properties owned by EPR Properties, namely Enchanted Forest Water Safari (likely where the Enchanted Parks name is derived) and Diggerland USA. This has given rise to a theory that EPR might be the ones making the purchase, with IAM serving as the operator in addition to taking over the current contract with EPR. That would result in Enchanted Parks being a decent size chain right out of the gate with six theme parks and six standalone waterparks (plus the above properties if IAM decides to merge them in).
This is certainly an interesting development, and it does appear to be a legitimate divestment of these park to a new company given the headquarters located in Orlando, a place that SF has absolutely no presence or history. This sounds like an offer that Six Flags couldn't refuse for parks in the chain that offer little upside in mostly lesser markets. However, I do think Six Flags might regret letting these parks go, because they represent steady revenue to help hedge against the volatility they may encounter from some of their larger parks. Also as AJ has noted, this group does not include some of the lowest performers in the chain that will continue to be a drain on the park's limited financial resources.
This just screams desperation to me from a company in urgent need to capital, and while this divestiture will probably give SF some seed money to ward off creditors, given the suddenness, these properties are almost certainly being sold under market value and removing some financial stability from the chain in the process.
I feel that SF just couldn't be bothered with these parks even though they provided predictable returns, but offloading these properties is not going to suddenly fix the chain's problems.
@ Russell - I thought the same thing regarding the desperation of SF for an immediate sugar rush of a cash infusion. This reeks of Sears selling of Craftsman tools, and is (as we have all noted) indicative of much greater underlying financial issues. From all reporting, these parks were stable revenue generators and turned a tidy annual profit. They however lacked the upside growth potential, so an "easy sell" that will have significant regret in the future, I believe.
Very well thought out post with a lot of good points. Based off your analysis I'm keeping options open for a CGA trip this September, which was originally planned for Fall 2027 based off the rumor it would be closing then.
I had a trip to SFSTL/SFGAm/CP/KI planned this year, but based off the events of yesterday decide to take out CP/KI and add WOF since I'm sure I won't be buying an Enchanted Parks season pass anytime soon. I guess that works out as a chance to go to Kauffman and Arrowhead before those bite the dust as well.
Also in anticipation of this I have a trip to Buffalo (Darien Lake/Canada's Wonderland) planned for this summer as well. All these parks with a season pass I bought last year at SFOG for $65 lol.