Robert's big board of theme park-related futures

March 29, 2017, 12:19 PM

As a former statistics major, I've always maintained a purely mathematical interest in odds and other tools used by the gaming industry to gauge public sentiment on whatever interests people who have money to burn.

Sports are the big subject for this stuff, but you can find futures markets in all types of subjects, including news events that ultimately influence the stock market and broader economy.

As a theme park fan and reporter covering this industry, I've long wished for a futures market that would assign odds to various hypotheticals in the theme park business. (But not enough to actually code up the thing. Plus, for a market really to work well, it would need people putting their money where their suspicions lie, and that gets into a whole bunch of legalities that I just don't have the time, patience, expertise, or on-staff legal team to address.)

So I'll just take the lazy way out and throw together a discussion thread instead. Here are some hypotheticals that I think are considered plausible enough among a significant number of fans for people to assign odds. I'm not going to do that myself, but I invite you to submit your odds for each event in the comments, along with whatever justification you feel like offering.

What are the odds that...

...Pandora - The World of Avatar soft opens to WDW guests before the AP previews on May 13.

...Universal Orlando postpones the media event and scheduled grand opening for Volcano Bay on May 25.

...Over/Under on Disney Twitter participants who flip and decide that Guardians of the Galaxy Mission Breakout is wonderful and they really loved the idea all along.

...Over/Under on the date that Disney caves and adds burgers and chicken fingers to the menu at Satu'li Canteen.

...There's nothing but a strobe light in the shed.

...SeaWorld opens or assists in opening an orca breeding program in China.

...Walt Disney World announces a "Club 33"-style private club within the next year.

...Super Nintendo World replaces the Woody Woodpecker KidZone at Universal Studios Florida, versus

...Super Nintendo World anchors a new Universal theme park on Universal Blvd. in Orlando.

...Universal replaces Fear Factor Live with a new Harry Potter ride before it replaces Dragon Challenge with a new Harry Potter ride.

...that Bob Iger extends his contract to run Disney beyond 2019 after all.

Thoughts?

Replies (9)

Edited: March 29, 2017, 1:15 PM

That is great, I would love to bet on those, I'll add one myself:
- Universal will announce the Hogwarts Castle projections show within 24 hours after WDW press event for Avatar Land is finished.
- Disney will keep losing money for another 25 year on DLP.

March 29, 2017, 1:51 PM

Odds that DHS' Star Wars Land opens in 2019, the same year as Disneyland's.

The next big ride announcement is for Epcot's Ratatouille. When?

Edited: March 29, 2017, 4:58 PM

Hmm, what are the odds that:

Universal charges guests to park at all the new hotels on the second site.

Over/Under on the amount of years after Pandora has opened and the Yeti remains motionless.

Disney finally brings Haunted Mansion Holiday to Florida.

Six Flags becomes strapped for cash again and is forced to incorporate sponsors in all the new VR experiences.

March 29, 2017, 7:58 PM

Universal charges guests to park at all the new hotels on the second site: 100% probability. Off the board.

Over/Under on the amount of years after Pandora has opened and the Yeti remains motionless: (Googles the HTML code for the infinity symbol....)

Disney finally brings Haunted Mansion Holiday to Florida: 50:1

Six Flags becomes strapped for cash again and is forced to incorporate sponsors in all the new VR experiences: 3:2 - Just remember to duck when the flying Snickers bar whizzes past your coaster train.

Edited: March 30, 2017, 10:03 PM

Lol, good ones Robert. In the spirit of the thread I will submit the following:

Pandora will soft open prior to the 13th, but with only about half the stuff fully operational. 3:1

Disney fans will continue to dislike Guardians until the end of time. That's the kind of thing that they'll go in hating and fulfill their self-prophecies.

I can see Disney adding American food to Avatar, but not at the expense of the special items. 2:1

Mario and Co. replace KidZone: 100%

Pokemon and Zelda (& etc) headline 3rd theme park: 80%

Universal replaces Fear Factor Live: 0% (for the time being). They need somewhere to put Bill and Ted for HHN and I don't think the Animal Actors theatre has great capacity.

March 31, 2017, 8:37 AM

See, if people in Orlando were as easily offended as people in California, we could get rid of Bill and Ted, tear down Fear Factor and get on with the Ministry of Magic construction. (LOL)

March 31, 2017, 3:47 PM

Frankly I am surprised Pandora isn't open already.

And no, VB is gonna be late.

March 31, 2017, 7:27 PM

The real ods and sods exercise? Will Apple buy Disney?

April 1, 2017, 10:12 AM

Found the next big announcement...


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