Shanghai Disneyland to Reopen on May 11

Well, this kinda answers some questions about what a reopening here in the US will look like. But that leaves the question of "when"?

God willing. I remember Chinese theaters attempting a reopening with showings of Avengers and Avatar, only to close again a couple days later.

DaveDisney.

China is in a very different place in this epidemic. It's basically over there. There's minimal if any community transmission, and only a handful of other cases. The death curve there is now flat.

In order to get anywhere and do anything you have to be willing to show a QR code showing that you haven't been in contact with anyone who has it. If you are, you can expect to be forcibly taken home, or to a quarantine centre. They are back at Test/Trace/Isolate.

Compare and contrast with the US. Your death count is still increasing (slowing down, but still increasing), it has not flattened off. Your infections are still increasing (slowing down, still increasing), they have not flattened off. And are you really going to tell me you'd be willing to put up with "Papers Please" checkpoints everywhere?

Your tantrums would be amusing if the situation wasn't so serious.

Edit, from the announcement

>>Register for the Health QR Code prior to their arrival, which will be required to be presented upon entering any location at Shanghai Disney Resort. Only guests with a green Health QR Code will be allowed to enter the resort;

That withstanding, they are planning for under 24,000. So that going back to those early conversations on the board, 50% may not be realistic for the US parks either.

I still am of the firm position Disney "drivers seat" would be more comfortable if they used testing kits as a pre-requisite for park entry and required masks on all indoor attractions and show. That combined with social distancing would seriously reduce health risks.

Do you also have to set age restrictions or additional health conditions as restrictions now.

I have no objection to contract tracing anywhere. It’s the only way out of this. Once we know where the virus is, control measures can be limited. The UK is running it’s own beta on the Isle if Wight starting today (Tuesday) and I’m looking forward to it being rolled out further.

I think keeping the death rate the same is far, far better than allowing it to increase, yes.

The issue isn't whether to stay at home forever. No reasonable person has proposed that. It's whether we use the stay at home time to flatten the death rate so that we buy time to develop new practices and procedures that allow us to get back to some sort of normal life while not increasing the death rate.

If you simply go back to the old normal - with no requirements that people wear masks, no limitations on the number of people gathering, and no distancing requirements - you'll go back to the old track of the death rate increasing. Anyone who proposes doing that, frankly, is either an idiot or a sociopath.

So stay at home until cleared to leave. Even then, stay at home as much as possible. Work from home as much as you can. Limit trips to buy food, medicine and other stuff you need. Socialize online instead of in person. Wash your hands after touching anything. And wear a freakin' mask when you are out in public and can see other people. It's a simple set of new rules.

And if we all follow them, we can get through this without sentencing tens of thousands of more Americans to death.

The death rate has largely plateaued yes -- still a rather high number -- AND that's been WITH all these stay-at-home orders and other restrictions in place. Now it's projected to go up -- to perhaps as high as 3,000 deaths a day, because almost every state is reopening to some degree. Not sure how Disney can reopen in the U.S. under these conditions. Tens of thousands more Americans will undoubtedly die. That's not a question, sadly, that's a given.

Will be interesting to see how Shanghai's reopening goes. If you believe China, they've contained it... just about no locally transmitted cases there in quite a long time. Again, IF you believe China.

I bet Hong Kong and Tokyo won't be too far behind. Certainly gives us a window into how it can be done here... eventually.

So at this rate we could maybe expect to see the U.S. parks open in July/August. Not to be Johnny Raincloud here, but we all need to stop watching the news. People are clearly getting statistics from all over the place. This death count, that death count. This curve is flat. This rate is spiking. Just enough already. It's fine to watch the news but stop with the obsession of the numbers. The fact is we don't know what numbers to believe. U.S. death count gets lowered by almost half from the CDC because they were counting all deaths as Covid. Fact. Doctors telling us face masks are ineffective because the virus is so small it'll come right through most people's cloth face coverings. Fact. We all just need to breathe a little bit more and panic a little bit less. It's doing no one any good. Personally, I chose not to wear a mask because I think it isnt effective unless you're already sick. So if I fall ill for anything Ill definitely wear a mask. But no way am I wearing one when I am perfectly healthy and then breathing in my CO2 exhaust which will do more harm than a virus.

People, I love all of you and really enjoy this website and our love for theme parks...but eventually we all have to get back in the pool. One state's approach might work for them and not for someone else....but it's time we get back to it! All we can do is use common sense. Don't be so close to each other in public. Wash your hands OFTEN and we'll all be fine. Lets get these parks opened and have fun again. Live again!

GoofTroop -- More than just numbers. These are people. Individuals, with lives and families.
And tens of thousands more will die in the coming months.

I LOVE Disney and Universal -- I'm a huge theme park enthusiast I want to go back as soon as is safe. Is that now? Is that in 30 days? 60 days? 90?

"The fact is we don't know what numbers to believe. U.S. death count gets lowered by almost half from the CDC because they were counting all deaths as Covid."

I've seen others say that as well, but I don't know what you're referring to about CDC lowering the death count by half because....well... they haven't???

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Current CDC death toll is at 68,279.

That's not too far behind the gold standard, and what all news outlets use, Johns Hopkins University: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (current just past 71,000 deaths)

"Doctors telling us face masks are ineffective because the virus is so small it'll come right through most people's cloth face coverings. Fact."

That's not the reason why people are being encouraged to wear masks though. It's to lessen the chance of spreading it to others. Many people have mild to NO symptoms when they're infected. You could have this and not even know it, and be unintentionally spreading it. If EVERYONE started wearing masks, it would actually lessen the spread of this quite significantly.

"Wash your hands OFTEN and we'll all be fine"

If only it were that simple. And yet, more than 70 thousand Americans are dead, a number which is being projected by a leading model to nearly double in the next few months. Again, I'm chomping at the bit just as much as anyone to get back to normal.

I had an April Disney vacation I had to cancel due to this. I want to go back. But are we ready to open up? Are we willing to sacrifice tens of thousands more Americans?

DaveDisney -- he's talking about breathing back in the CO2 that we ourselves exhale, not car exhaust. some certainly can get trapped by the mask and you could breath it back in. But it's minimal, and likely not enough to make you sick.

health care workers wear masks all day long. And they're not getting sick due to the mask usage. And in many asian countries, it's a cultural thing to wear masks -- well before Covid-19. They're not getting sick because of the masks.

The idea that masks are more of a health risk than the virus itself is quite absurd actually.

To get back on track, this does seem like something big the rest of the theme park world is going to be watching closely to see how it works and a pattern to follow down the line. Hope it works out but really tricky see how they meet the challenge.

>> My question to Robert, Chad and anyone else who disagrees is what is going to change after another 30 or 60 days?

That’s a simple maths equation. The R number (retransmission rate) where I am is somewhere between 0.6 and 0.9.

So in 21 days (the life cycle of this virus), where there’s 100 now, there could be 60, in 42 days, 36. 63 days, 22.

As opposed to 100, 300, 900, 2700 with it’s natural R rate of 3.

Getting the base level infected down slows you to look at:

1. Seeing if some restrictions can be eased, accepting a slightly higher R rate but knowing now it won’t overwhelm the health system.

2. Implement Track/Trace/Isolate. You can’t implement T/T/I at high infected levels - there’s no point even if you could. When the number is low, you can and you can target measures to those infected, or if there is an outbreak to just that locality.

That’s where you should want to go.

>> I googled it just now. Right this second, the WHO still says you should not wear a mask unless you are caring for an infected covid 19 person or you are actively coughing or sneezing

It’s my understanding from UK Government scientific advice and Scottish Government scientific advice that this remains correct. There is no proven benefit to you wearing a mask for you. There is a small about of evidence that there may be small benefits to others around you if you do (which is why ScotGov recommends but doesn’t enforce it).

That’s based on what a First Minister Sturgeon said last week, What SAGE says this week, and what scientific commentators like “Dr” Karl Kruszelnicki has been saying for months.

If you have scientific evidence that shows masks are effective then I’m sure everyone in the scientific community wants to see it.

@Chad: "There is no proven benefit to you wearing a mask for you. There is a small about of evidence that there may be small benefits to others around you if you do "

Even a small benefit to others is exactly why the U.S. and others are now recommending people wear them. The U.S. eventually came around, maybe the UK will too.

I also think it's partly a cultural thing. There was and perhaps still is a sigma against wearing masks in public for various reasons -- not the case at all in Asian countries, who swear by their effectiveness.

And resisting encouraging wearing masks also partly about making sure to not take away from health care workers who really need them (especially don't want people stocking up on N95 masks).

There certainly is research on the topic that shows benefits for the population to wear masks. Just google "study mask use covid-19" -- tons of stuff pops up, even directly relating to the UK.

This may seem like a tangent, but actually is still very relevant to Disney since mask are now a requirement at Shanghai Disney and may well become one at U.S. parks once they reopen.

I by no means claim to be an expert in global health, all I know is going to a theme park if they are telling you not to be within 6 feet proximity of another person is stupid. The experience of trying to get in to the park and following the markings on the ground to make sure you are safe distance from people is going to be stupid, waiting for them to clean the seats constantly on all the rides is going to be stupid, and constantly worrying about getting the coronavirus when you go to and are paying good money to enjoy the park is stupid.

Obviously this is not the parks themselves fault, and they doing this whole charade because its basically the expectation of the public, but I still think its a charade. The parks are opening because they have bills to pay and i'm sure plenty of people will go but I won't be one of them until this charade is over.

@Dave -
"Serious, but not devestating to human life, unless you have a serious underlying condition. The news can always find rare exceptions because we are human beings which some variability in our body chemistry. Deal with it."

Pretty devastating to human life for the, you know, people who actually lose their lives? No?
It's not just the elderly or people with underlying conditions -- and no, those are not just "rare exceptions." Plenty of otherwise healthy people are getting hit hard by this, with a significant number dying. You just don't know how your body will react. Or maybe you have a previously undiagnosed condition?

@the__man --
So don't go until they lift the restrictions? How is it a "charade" to try to prevent the spread of a deadly virus? Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying? Are you maybe arguing against opening the parks in the general?

>> The R level is NOT 3. I have seen Dr fauci and Dr birks say over and over there is no set R level.

Yes, the at level does fluctuate depending on the specific curcumstances. However if you look at it very broadly over the entire community and not just in narrow circumstances, SAGE’s opinion is that the natural R rate is about 3.

In any case, you’re quibbling over a minor data point that doesn’t help your argument. Any number bigger than 1 is bad. Highlighting specific circumstances where it’s worse doesn’t help you.

>> It has to be done under constitutional principles. realizing that in 1776 contagious diseases killed a lot of people.

This may be news to you, but it’s not 1776. In 1776 you didn’t know you were in a pandemic until the local graveyard was full and travel was limited, urbanisation levels were different and contract tracing options different. Society is very different now.

Even Trump knows that opening up now will likely result in more death than not “ It's possible there will be some [deaths] because you won't be locked into an apartment or a house or whatever it is,"

@GOOFTROOP's comments are goofier than the goof himself—well intended, but incorrect and patronizing. 70K+ people have died from COVID in the US alone. Choose not to stay informed, fine. But don't deny vetted information. It's disrespectful of the med field, the sick, and the dead.

I'm saying if the health experts are saying its unsafe to be within 6 feet of another person then why would people go to a place like Disneyland/World? You are correct, I don't think the parks should be open until the social distancing recommendations are lifted.

Now that doesn't mean there won't be demand, i'm sure there will be plenty of people signing up when the parks open especially at Disney Parks with the temptation of very light crowds.

>> there will be plenty of people signing up when the parks open especially at Disney Parks with the temptation of very light crowds

I think you can count on it being domestic tourists only. It probably won’t mean much to the likes of Six Flags or Cedar Fair, but international destination parks will battle first with borders being closed or where they are open impractical (if I have to quarantine 14 days after a trip, that quarantine is half my annual leave), and when they do open, a drastic decrease in air travel capacity over the Atlantic (Both BA and Virgin won’t be flying from London’s number 2 airport for the foreseeable future (years), and Norwegian is cutting its fleet by a third)

I do hope Virgin will still be in business for me to use my miles to get to WDW next year, but no idea if that will happen.

@ davedisney In Chapek's own words, Disney will open to a smaller number. So if said Government is not being transparent, Disney is. A virus does not care about politics or political views. It's effects are only arbitrary at this point because the science does not exist to pin-point whom it impacts and in what specific ways. We are far away from having that knowledge and we may never have all facts. Hard to be "transparent" when you do not have a real baseline for what transparent is. Sharing opening and honestly with intention can also equate to saying "we do not know".

If an individual(s) do not understand that perhaps it is out of reach or beyond comprehension. No disrespect.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, even with testing for anti-bodies, you still have to take pre-cautions in all indoor enclosed areas. To me there is no safe path to opening until we reach heard immunity or have a proven vaccine.

>> It's effects are only arbitrary at this point because the science does not exist to pin-point whom it impacts and in what specific ways. We are far away from having that knowledge and we may never have all facts.

That’s not to say we don’t have some interesting information on links with deaths to particular racial groups, health conditions, and air quality.

>> Sharing opening and honestly with intention can also equate to saying "we do not know".

Sometimes that’s the most honest answer you can give. It’s a shame we also view it as the scariest.

"Sometimes that’s the most honest answer you can give. It’s a shame we also view it as the scariest."

It's also a shame that when an expert is unable to answer or chooses not to answer because insufficient evidence is available to support one, the worst case scenario is assumed. We certainly can't assume everything is awesome when tough questions can't be answered, but we also can't assume the sky is falling either

I think we have to start saying that social distancing at it's core is "Social Responsibility" to one another.

One thing to wonder about is how the main Chinese populace will respond to park reopening. Because it's forgotten how Asian cultures can have much different views than we in the West. A reason Japan is having trouble is because so much of their culture is on a work environment and that was harder on them (throw in the Olympics delayed to hurt the economy more and so a push to get back on track faster).

It's always fascinated me how Disney has had to shift some attractions for these cultures. For example, Mystic Manor is different because Chinese audiences see ghost stories differently than even Japanese people do. China has been fighting this longer than we have yet thinking their return can be just like the U.S. may be a bit much to assume.

>>What this tells us pretty conclusively is 1. yes this virus is highly contagious but. 2. so contagious that just shutting down the economy and telling people to stay home is not going to prevent deaths in dense apartment buildings

I don't know how you get that from that.

It was already well known that most transmissions occur in the home. Because people haven't been in offices, there's less homes with the initial infection for it to spread in. Thats just simple maths.

That the increase in cases is reducing is the evidence that this is working. Sorry to burst your bubble.

If you want to see what doing nothing looks like, look at Brazil.

>>Only 2 percent of the homeless are infected in last 2 wk cases. This tells us what Pres trump alluded to a couple of weeks ago and a lot of the media intentionally LIED saying he was telling people to inject bleach or lysol

What does injecting bleach have to do with the homeless figures?

>>As well as to a few other countries leaders such as (i think) australia who suggested similar things about sunlight.

This is the Australia where insituting a lockdown earlier in the process and effectively stopping interstate travel stoped the country ever reaching the levels seen elsewhere?

>>CHAD--when I cited 1776 and into the 1800's I was NOT talking about any specific pandemic.

Never said you did. Funnily enough, neither did I.

>> From even earlier than that around the world there were just contagious diseases that were around society.

And?

>>. They could not be stamped out no matter what you did or how many restrictions you put on people because they had no vaccine for it.

And?

>>You know, like now and probably for at least the least 12 months. very possibly 24 or 36 months. I would say C'mon man you should know that.

I've never said anything about a vaccine to my recollection. What leaps of thinking you're making is beyond me.

>>But. contagious diseases being fairly well spread all the time in 1899 and earlier. is also pretty common knowledge.

Again, AND?

In all of those cases you didn't know about the pandemic until your graveyard was full. This is different. 1776 principles are totally irrelevant.

We're in a completely different situation to any major pandemic on this scale from ever before. We can see this happening in real time. We can see who has the disease in almost real time. We can take mitigation measures that people in 1776, 1876 or even 1976 couldn't imagine we'd be capable of doing.

I figured you were talking about a document written by people around 1776, who's insight into our current situation is frankly not very useful/helpful. As they had no idea what tools we'd have to deal with an outbreak of pestilence falling back on what they may or may not have thought about it isn't interesting in any meaningful way.

I don't know what point you think you're making, it so unclear that you're clearly not able to communicate it.

@Chad: "What does injecting bleach have to do with the homeless figures?"

I think he's trying to say that more homeless aren't getting infected because of sunlight (although no basis for this conclusion), and he's trying to pretend that that's all Trump said, when he made the injecting disinfectant comments.

@Dave "the media intentionally LIED saying he was telling people to inject bleach or lysol. I watched it live, the pres and the head of the CDC (who spoke before the pres that day) "

If by lie, you mean accurately report on what he said, then yes. Also, the CDC director did not speak before him that day.... a couple other officials did though. Here's a helpful transcript from the White House website:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-31/

"Gov cuomo of new york says 66 percent of new cases in the last 2 weeks are from people who were at home most the time, except for groceries or the doctor"

Right so it's THAT contagious that you can get it when your only trips outside are to get groceries. Shouldn't that translate into keeping the lockdown going longer, not easing it? If people are going more places, more people will get this.

Fear we've gone too far off topic now, though this is ALL related to the factors that will go into any Disney parks reopening. I'm out for now.... (BTW I've been a reader of this website for years, even though I only just now registered to post comments).

This is like one of those interviews when the reporter is choosing between the person that by all appearances is normal and the person with tinfoil on their head. The person with tinfoil on their head is always chosen....