Disney continues to lead attendance in 2024, as Universal slips

Good to see Dollywood on the top 20, but this is probably going to be Knotts' only year in America's top 10 because of EU. Every year I am consistently surprised just how many spots Disney has in these lists. Truly the dominant force in the theme park industry.

Judging based on the wait times seen so far this year - wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2 legacy Universal Orlando parks continue to struggle in next year’s report.

I’ll be most interested to see whether the opening of Epic Universe actually ends up hurting USO and IOA.

I tip my cap to our Asian friends overseas- they love themselves some theme parks! We all have something in common :)

What I find interesting is that many companies (not just in the theme park industry) proclaim that they have returned to pre-COVID performance. However, when you go back and look at the last report that quantified attendance before the pandemic (2020 report for the 2019 calendar year), MK had an estimated attendance of just under 21 million (20,983,000), Disneyland was reported at 18.7 million (over half the year with Galaxy's Edge though no RotR), DAK was 13.9 million, DHS was 11.5 (just a few months of Galaxy's Edge), USF was 10.9, and IOA was 10.4. Compare that to the current (2024 calendar year) report, and MK is 17.8 million (15% off 2019), DL is 17.3 million (7% off 2019), DAK is 8.8 million (37% off 2019!!!!), DHS is 10.3 million (10% off 2019), while USF is 9.5 million (13% off 2019), and IOA is 8.8 million (15% off 2019). So either the numbers in 2019 (and prior years) were significantly inflated compared to how they're estimated today (yes, TH we both agree that there's definitely some dark arts going on with the numbers in these reports), or theme parks have NOT actually rebounded fully from the pandemic.

If these numbers are to be trusted, you could say that Disney is succeeding in their goal of continuing to grow the business through pricing controls that theoretically reduces overcrowding of the parks but ups the per-cap through upcharges, tiered admission pricing, and increased guest spending.

What I don't understand is if the parks are theoretically less crowded than they were in 2019, why is it that wait times are as long (or in many cases longer) today than they were in 2019 even though most of the parks are either physically larger or provide more attractions than they did in 2019? Also, even when guests are paying an upcharge to avoid lines, they are unable to experience as many attractions in a day than you could in 2019, when FF+ was free (or in the case of Disneyland was a modest upcharge compared to LL) - in other words guests are paying more for less and are waiting longer for attractions than they were even though there are fewer people in the parks.

Don't overlook the effect of reduced entertainment in the parks following the pandemic. Entertainment - parades, street shows, character meets, nighttime spectaculars - help draw people from queues, reducing wait times. We need that back if wait times are going to come down.

But if parks can make money selling queue passes to people who want to avoid longer waits, parks have a big economic incentive to keep cutting entertainment rather than paying money to restore it.

I would agree Robert, but at what point can parks (and let's keep this to Disney and Universal) continue to meet financial goals simply through revenue optimization (i.e. pricing, upcharges, and increasing guest spending)? Sure, both Disney and Universal have kept their parks extremely profitable (perhaps even more so than in 2019) solely through revenue optimization, but I really think both companies can only sustain these gains for so long, and if attendance is only growing in the low single digits (or shrinking in the example of Universal) as they have over the past few years, they're going to hit a wall, and won't be able to generate the needed attendance gains to meet their financial goals without trying to squeeze even more blood from the rock (price increases and upcharges).

This goes back to the fundamental issue with the destination parks becoming unaffordable, and while using pricing tools to reduce overcrowding has achieved financial success in a post-pandemic world, they've alienated so many of their potential customers that they're not going to be able to grow revenue at a sustainable level without further alienating more guests through higher prices and upcharges, especially with the prospect of heavy financial headwinds projected over the next 2-3 years.

"Disney continues to lead attendance in 2024, as (Comcast) slips" ... It's hard to see how the 2025 numbers that will be released next year won't show a similar slip at the original Comcast parks. EU will be stealing from USF and IOA as much as it will from Disney.

Good. Everyone go to Disney so I can have the Universal parks to myself.

TH- I'm pretty sure attendance for a chain usually increases at the resort when a new park is added. It's unlikely that many groups or families are choosing Epic Universe instead of another Universal park- instead, I believe that EU will be the deciding factor that causes many families to choose Universal over Disney. Only a very small group of locals who aren't APs (me included) are going to do EU and not IOA or USF.

I was in Florida last week. We had 2 days of Epic Universe tickets, but after getting all of the important attractions (and both shows) done on Day 1, decided to switch our 2nd day tickets in for Islands of Adventure. We did receive a credit for the difference in price between the tickets BTW, something I do not believe Disney does.

About halfway through the day at IOA, we upgraded to park to park tickets, and got everything we wanted done in USF as well (minus the 4 attractions that would be open at HHN - where we were going the following night).

Overall, in 2 days plus 1 night at HHN we got all rides and shows in between the 3 parks, with exception to: the Simpson’s, Suess Landing/Toon Lagoon, Hiccups Wing Glider, Mine Cart Madness and Dragon Racers Rally.

All 3 Universal parks were pretty busy, the key was always getting a productive 1st hour in (and all rides were walk-on via single rider lines during HHN).

I suspect the large amount of "revenge travel" in 2022 and 2023 probably inflated the numbers in those years a bit, so it's not that surprising to me that 2024's numbers flatlined or even declined at the more destination-oriented parks. If we look at the numbers for Florida as a whole, WDW is up 332k, but UOR is down 800k, which indicates visitation overall to the region was down last year. In SoCal, while DLR is up 137k, USH is down 960k, and the Six Flags properties together are up 292k, indicating a lot more interest in day trip locations than multi-night resorts. The other US Six Flags properties on the list are all up over 100k despite none adding major attractions in 2024, while semi-destination parks like Dollywood and Hersheypark essentially flatlined, further supporting this preference. I will concede that 2024 was a very light year for major investment across the North American theme park industry (I don't think anywhere in the top 20 opened something travel-worthy last year), so it makes sense that people craving a theme park itch will opt for closest and cheapest.

Like many, I'm really curious to see what Florida's numbers look like next year as a result of Epic. That will probably be very telling whether more people are opting for Universal vacations or whether people are just adding Epic onto a Disney vacation.

V-Coaster: "TH- I'm pretty sure attendance for a chain usually increases at the resort when a new park is added. It's unlikely that many groups or families are choosing Epic Universe instead of another Universal park- instead ..."

Me: History undermines that claim. In 1998, Seagrams ... um ... Blackstone ... Arbys or whomever owned the Universal Escape parks, built 'Men In Black: Alien Attack' (opened in 2000) expressly because they feared IOA (opened in 1999) would cannibalize USF. Of course neither USF nor IOA have any major "new", gate crasher attractions that will open in 2026. They are replacing a rollercoaster ('Hollywood Rip Ride Rockit') with another rollercoaster. That might not be much help competing against EU which boasts five coasters of its own.

Additionally (according to TEA/AECOM) in 2015 when Diagon Alley opened at USF attendance jumped by 2,500,000 guests. That same year attendance at IOA increased by only 650,000. Yes, that's an increase, but its a fourth of what the park with the new attraction brought in -- and IOA is right next door (connected by the Hogwart's Express) not an aging carny miles down the road.

In my opinion, Comcast made (ahem) a "big mistake" by delaying the development of major attractions at its original parks until after EU opened.

Congrats to Knott’s for their big numbers last year! Yes, that number 10 position won’t hold in 2025, but this park deserves all its flowers.

And I’m glad to see SeaWorld slip. I love the chain, but they have made it harder to maintain that love with short-sighted nickel and diming. You can only aggravate your customer base for so long before they turn on you.

TH- of course adding a new attraction to an older park will cause it to boost attendance more than the other parks in the chain. But when HRRR opened, it also caused IOA's attendance to increase, even if not by much. Epic Universe isn't going to "cannibalize" USF and IOA- it's more likely that all three of them see an increase in attendance, even marginally.

IDK Velocicoasterfan. I think TH is on to something, and is consistent with empirical evidence and tactics deliberately used by Universal to try to stem the attendance decline at the legacy parks. First, Epic was NOT included in UO APs, and those passholders had to purchase individual dated tickets to visit the new park. This was a clear attempt to ensure Epic would not cannibalize IOA and USF, more or less forcing passholders to still visit the older parks to justify the AP purchase. Second, while eventually reversing the decision, Universal initially forced guests to purchase multi-day tickets to UO in order to spend a single day at Epic. Short of new attractions or other offerings at the older parks to draw guests to IOA and USF, Universal turned to what amounted to "blackmail" as a way to try to preserve some interest in the legacy parks even though there was high interest and demand for Epic.

Frankly, I think while overall UO will see a natural increase in overall attendance thanks to Epic (maybe as much as 25-30%), I wouldn't be surprised to see USF and IOA to be flat or maybe even continue a slightly downward trajectory (maybe as much as 5% down from 2024). Also, since Epic didn't officially open until May, and was reportedly under significant capacity restrictions for its few couple of months, it's overall impact and success will probably not be clear until we see attendance data from 2026 (i.e. this time in 2027), and that assumes the authors of these annual report are able to get any reliable attendance data from the new park since it won't have any sort of baseline to work from like every other major park in the US.

- I believe the decision to not add EU to APs was more to prevent overcrowding than anything else. I don't think that they're "forcing" guests to do anything, simply making sure that APs don't fill up EU.

- I don't really know why EU was originally sold in a bundle with the other two parks, but I believe that this was also to prevent overcrowding. Maybe in small part it was to drive attendance to the original parks, but it makes more sense to me that the decision was to decrease the amount of tickets being sold.

-I do agree that the statistics are going to take a little bit before they reach a point where the impact is clear. However, any drop in attendance for the original parks could probably be attributed to anticipation for HRRR's and Lost Continent's replacements.

Robert, I'm addressing this to you but anyone (or no one) can pipe in.

My reaction to the Disney statistics is a big wow, well done. I don't think we give Disney enough credit for its success in todays DIFFICULT WORLD. With the fragmentation along national, political, economic, and cultural lines, it's gotta be really tough to impossible to please enough people of different stripes to keep them coming back. Make one group happy and you tick off another. Invest in the middle east and some with hate you. Mention diversity and you will please some and alienate others. Open a Michelin level restaurant and some people will complain about the line to get in and others about the cost. Don't have enough astonishing themed rides and some will complain but others will grump about the ticket prices that were needed to fund the ride's construction. Try to tell universal, family-oriented stories across all of the lines mentioned above and good luck to you.

I think Disney is a unique target these days, ready made for everyone to hate. Yet, people keep coming back and spending. I'll say it again, Well Done Disney.

"However, any drop in attendance for the original parks could probably be attributed to anticipation for HRRR's and Lost Continent's replacements."

Which leads EXACTLY to what TH is talking about, because Universal waited until AFTER Epic opened before addressing the massive holes in the legacy parks' lineups (and TBF, those only address 2 of the more than a half dozen gaps in those parks that include: Jimmy Fallon, F&FS (potential second phase after RRR's replacement opens), Fear Factor, Springfield, Toon Lagoon Amphitheater, Jurassic Park/World upgrade, and the perpetual uncertainty around Marvel). Universal leaders have been very vocal that they want to perpetuate the momentum created by Epic across the entirety of the Orlando resort, but the reality is that they should have started this work in 2022/23 (and Disney should have done the same to go head to head with Epic instead of yielding to the competitor down the street) just as they did when IOA opened by simultaneous developing MIB for USF while finishing IOA. The reality is that Universal may end up fumbling the impact Epic could have made on UO, which could ultimately squander the momentum generated by the new park - or they end up spending millions more trying to maintain the momentum than they would have had they spent on improvements/expansions years ago. The Pandemic certainly had a lot to say on Universal's decision making in 2021-2023, but hindsight definitely shows some flaws in the overall execution of Epic and its impact on the overall resort.

I agree UKDisneyFan, but if you look at other industries around the world, a global leader in the position Disney is in rarely relinquishes their #1 spot unless there is some serious mismanagement or pure neglect. Being top dog is naturally going to draw more criticism and rooting for the underdogs to knock Disney off their perch.

Adding to Russell's point, it's also the failure to.maintain the attra lions. At USF, effects at 'Revenge of the Mummy' and MIB are turned off. During our last visit, the main goblin in the lobby of Gringott's sat motionless. Why would a family of four drop hundreds of dollars to visit those parks? What is the draw?

Russell at TH make great points, but I wasn't arguing that Universal should've built EU. I was simply saying that EU would boost the popularity of the resort.

“Why would a family of four drop hundreds of dollars to visit those parks?”

Because they can.

Some people in this topic are overthinking the EU ticketing structure. EU can only hold so many people, so they figure if there is so much demand and not enough supply, then why not milk people much as much as possible? The way they see it they can force people to buy a package and still fill up the park so why not do it?

In regards to this list that comes out every year, its an educated guess and while it is good at giving you a general idea of trends as parks get more successful and move up the list (like Dollywood), the specific spots are not entirely accurate and should be taken with a dose of skepticism.

the_man20-whatever: "The way they (Comcast) see it they can force people to buy a package and still fill up the park so why not do it?

Me: If Disney did this, the WDW haters would howl about that being a "cash grab".

Disney numbers are seriously inflated especially for magic kingdom since they count evening events as separate attendance and factoring in multiple parks visits on the same day by the same visitor. Instead of 21 million unique visitors I bet the real number is closer 10. Not a fair comparison to the single stand alone parks.

Sorry Tiptop, but if any attendance numbers are seriously inflated it would be Comcast's. In 2024, Comcast announced that its two-park Florida Unlimited Days Ticket for $199 plus tax. That ticket will got a Florida resident unlimited admission to Universal Studios Florida and Islands of Adventure from July 2024 to mid-December 2024 with no blockout dates. If you are asserting the Magic Kingdom's number are inflated because a guest can visit multiple parks visits on the same day/ticket, then the same could be said about multiple admissions on a single ticket over the five month period of Comcast's fire-sale.

And by the way, it seems a dark harbinger if Comcast's stats dropped even after giving away the store.