Comcast's stock is up, Disney's is down. And some idiot just hit on a hard 17 in Vegas. (Which has as much to do with the long-term status of these companies as the daily fluctuations in their stock prices.)
This does really put the screws to Eisner though. Stock is dropping and the company has no hopes until summer, and has little hope then. There is no Finding Nemo or Pirates in that timeframe. Everything is hanging on the parks this summer, and with gas prices and increasing uneasiness with the Iraq situation, things are very iffy. It's not as if Comcast can't retry if Disney does have a wretched summer, or even another company. Things could get even uglier.
Don't expect anyone else to storm the gates of the Walt Disney Co. now that Comcast Corp. has given up and gone home.
That's because few companies could afford to buy Disney, and many of those that could don't need its portfolio of resorts, movie studios and broadcast-and-cable networks -- especially not at the premium price Disney would command, industry analysts said Wednesday.
"I don't see who would want them," said Todd Mitchell, an analyst with Blaylock & Partners, a New York investment firm.
Soon after Comcast made its unsolicited offer for Disney in February, investors began to wonder whether any other companies would also try to buy Disney, one of the world's largest media corporations.
But then, as now, analysts said that the usual suspects -- such as Time Warner Inc. and Viacom Inc. -- were unlikely to take a run at the legendary entertainment company.
And it just isn't Eisner I am talking about. Iger would be out the door too, and he is the one destroying ABC. The movie division has no one of worth either, considering how lame most of their movies have done over the past decade.
Plus, what the hell does it matter what the analysts are saying NOW? If Disney stock plummets again, vultures could very well start circling. And the next quarter relies almost solely on the parks, since their movies are going to continue sucking right up until The Incredibles in NOVEMBER.
And how moronic are these "analysts" anyhow, since they don't even take into account that divisions, like ABC or the theme parks, could be sold off after a takeover. No matter how bloated Disney has become, its film library and its characters will always be coveted by someone. Today and tomorrow aren't the only available options, ya know.
Further, the Florida Legislature has made it clear that a new owner of the Disney company may well result in the Reedy Creek improvement district losing its autonomy -- which would escalate construction costs.
MR. BAXTER WRITES: Plus, what the hell does it matter what the analysts are saying NOW? If Disney stock plummets again, vultures could very well start circling.
I RESPOND: And if another overture is made the stock price shoots right back up. The point of the Sentinel article is that if anyone wants to buy Disney they will have to pay more than Comcast was willing to pay and that there are not any companies that have shown any indication they intend to do so.
Disney survived this one only because the offer was weak. What I saw was Disney stock spike predictably, and now it's going back down (that was also just as predictable). That little move to get Eisner off the chair had very little effect because it was just a big pose to give stockholders the illusion of change. Stockholders spoke with a ridiculously high disapproval rating of Eisner and the new chairperson as well. The company responded by removing the problem and replacing it with another one. The company is weak at this point, and I think that it's only a matter of time before we hear news of another potential takeover, or news of Roy's success.
Disney survived the takeover, but now what, we are still left with mediocre parks, movies, and networks. Until certain people are gone...namely the vast majority of the board, then I don't see things changing much for the better.
Has this been a creative decade for Disney? Hell no! And only one man is to blame for it. I stick with my belief that anyone would be better.
I'll take mundane product over job losses every single time!
As for Comcast's creativity... who knows how creative Brian Roberts is. But that isn't the point. Whether or not he is creative, the only thing that counts is the creative people he hires. He would be the new Eisner, and hopefully he would know to hire people he wouldn't have to micromanage. Iger would be gone, and who wouldn't be better than him?
But get into the individual divisions. ABC needs creative change and no one with the ability to run the network wants to right now, because of Eisner. ABC could only do better with a regime change.
The movie division could go either way. Eisner seems more interested in acquisitions than quality, and some movies that should have never been made - The Alamo - got the green light. But, the one way to keep the movie division strong would be to get another Katzenberg in charge of the animation division. Creativity there has been stagnant.
Then we have the theme parks. Of all the Disney businesses that would thrive after Eisner's absence, it would be this one. There are a lot of creative executives at the top here. Jay Rasulo, head of the parks, seems to understand what they need. Matt Ouimet, head of DLR, and Al Weiss, head of WDW, may both be even more knowledgeable than Rasulo. This division - which makes up about 40% of the company - could be thriving, if Disney only had a CEO that understood what the hell they were about.
I don't think there is really a lot of stuff a new CEO would have to worry about. ABC is the major problem right now, and television is allegedly the medium Brian Roberts works in, right?
As for layoffs, I wouldn't doubt there would be some. But thousands? That's seriously moronic. There simply isn't that much overlap between the two companies. If there would be any job losses, it would be in the bloated ranks of Disney's upper management, and who cares if they get canned? CMs and cable installers won't be affected.
I also put a lot of stock in the perspective of Orlando hotelier Harris Rosen. Mr. Rosen has been heavily invested in Orlando tourism since the early 1970s.
A couple of months ago, the Orlando Sentinel published a comment from Mr. Rosen regarding the Comcast take-over. The Sentinel noted that Mr. Rosen has had several osen said the news made him "shudder" adding that Comcast would "chew the parks up and spit them out."
And I would never accept mundane product as opposed to layoffs. If someone in a creative world can't rise above mundane, that person doesn't deserve that job. Which is why the dissolution of much of Disney's animation studio never bothered me. How much of their production wasn't mundane? Unfortunately many talented animators lost their jobs, but boo-hoo! Last time I checked, Disney wasn't the only company creating traditional animation. If working for places like Nickelodeon or ABC's Saturday shows is too much of a comedown, then they don't deserve jobs. An animator animates.
Wow, how was that for a tangent?
