Who is winning the theme park business right now?

Merlin seems to be contracting and isn’t aspiring to even its old number 3 spot anymore. Six flags seems big, but it sounds like they’re choking on their size, united parks still has it struggles, but I never hear a bad word about Hershend, and recent visits by Mammoth Club and WrightDownMainStreet suggests they have a lot of focus on doing things right.

So only one choice for me.

I think United is actually doing well financially, at least compared to how they were doing from 2010-2020 (I realize they've gone downhill in many ways, but financially they seem to be doing OK). Of course that could change with the economy slowing down but I think they're positioned well to take advantage of that, at least here in Florida where we have a huge population and they are the cheapest option.

I think Six Flags will have a huge fall season when it comes to attendance because of the MVP sale, and it will again lure their investors into a false sense of "things are turning around," but the problems they face are deep and systemic...we're talking decades of mismanagement. The whole reason they merged was because they wanted to cut operating costs through economies of scale, bad reason to have a corporate merger IMO. The problem wasn't that it was too expensive to operate the parks (it may have been A problem, but it wasn't THE problem). The problem was that their customer base hates them and doesn't want to go, even though they operate mini monopolies in huge markets they still have poor attendance. That should tell you something.

I do think Herschend is clearly the "best of the rest" right now, but it will be interesting to see what they do with their newly acquired Palace Entertainment assets. Up until now, Herschend has been very calculated with their growth strategy, and has not gotten too far ahead of themselves as they have done a great job of balancing the addition of new attractions with renovations of classic attractions and expansions to their resorts. Now with all of these new properties to deal with, it will take a new level of coordination to make sure they are integrated into the company and all reflect the dedication to customer service and fulfilling expectations. Given the recent expansion, I would probably mark Herschend as an "incomplete", but they probably have the highest ceiling of the second tier companies.

I get the feeling that Merlin is done dealing with the fickle US market as they have not really gotten much bang for their investment buck. Being a larger company, Merlin does have more resources than Herschend, but they seem less willing to take risks, and are as likely to jettison underperforming assets as they would pump capital to turn an asset around. Yes, the Space expansions coming to their Legoland parks represent some of the largest additions in those parks' histories, but they're still relatively minor in terms of overall impact. I feel that Herschend is likely to get far more impact from their new addition to Dollywood and Palace purchase in 2026 than Merlin's investments in their US parks.

United Parks are in an interesting spot. I feel that the criticism of their pricing tactics has died down recently, and that they have the financial stability to survive an economic downturn. Since the chain does not typically pump massive resources years in advance of a new addition, the chain is nimble enough to project dips in revenue and adjust expenditures to keep the books balanced. I also think that the individual parks have proved the value of theming and story to the accountants and have shown a renew commitment to deliver more well-rounded attractions in the past 1-2 years compared to the prior 3-5 years where the park was clearly pulling back theming elements to cut costs. While United might not have a high ceiling in terms of potential moving forward - I do think there was that potential in the 00's and early '10's where the chain was close to bridging the gap to Disney/Universal, but that was lost when the chain went through a series of different ownership groups. However, United has a solid floor, and is in a far better spot compared to SF.

Regardless of what the company would have you believe, Six Flags is in deep trouble. They can tout their recent revenue resulting from their MVP Sale and some minor attendance increases at the end of the summer, but this company is fatally flawed in the way they approach their business. The company still operates as 2 separate chains of parks and while there are indications that there will be more synergy in 2026, I will believe it when I see it. Not necessarily a complaint, but when visiting SFA this past Saturday, I was shocked to see a park that has received actual improvements over the past few weeks including new signs on attractions and other major capital improvements (like a shiny new funnel cake stand) debuting 2 months before the park is to close FOREVER. Again, it's nice to see these types of improvements, many that were far overdue, but it makes you wonder why SF is choosing to spend money in a park that won't operate again after the first week in November. The money spent on these improvement won't make SF a penny, and I highly doubt guests will see these improvements and buy a pass to another nearby park (SFGAdv, Dorney, or KD) for 2026. I just don't see a company making smart decisions or one that truly understands their customers, which are massive red flags for a company that has continued to make the same mistakes for 2+ decades.

Ultimately, I think Herschend has the most potential, but their size and uncertainty regarding their recent acquisition raise some questions, while United is more of a sure thing that is better positioned to succeed amidst potentially adverse economic conditions anticipated over the next 3-5 years.

Dollywood puts even Universal and Disney to shame when it comes to friendliness and, maintenance, and guest satisfaction. For the price of admission I would never have expected such a well maintained, well staffed, well run park. No upsells for front of the line passes, and even on busy days, it's still easy to ride a handful of rides. They have a model that the bigger companies need to adopt (and that Disney use to have). That said, they do need more rides for the whole family. Dollywood has a lot of kiddie rides and a lot of coasters... but they need some good classic dark rides that the whole family can enjoy together.